Knowing How to Change Your Mind: A Three Minute Guide to Bayesian Reasoning       

NEW LESSON

with Julia Galef

Since you cannot really be 100 percent certain of a theory, a better way to put it to yourself is to say "I think this is very likely to be true."     http://bigthink.com/big-think-mentor/knowing-how-to-change-your-mind-a-three-minute-guide-to-bayesian-reasoning